marvinvista.com

Three major AI video launches in three weeks, and each company picked a radically different target audience:

...compelling AI video generation is very much here, and it's widespread: over the last three weeks we have actual AI video products from Google, Meta, and now OpenAI.

...it feels like each company has an entirely different target audience: YouTube is making tools for creators, Meta is building the ultimate lean back dream-like experience, and OpenAI is making an app that is, in my estimation, the easiest for normal people to use.

In this new competition, I prefer the Meta experience, by a significant margin, and the reason why goes back to one of the oldest axioms in technology: the 90/9/1 rule.

• 90% of users consume
• 9% of users edit/distribute
• 1% of users create

If you were to categorize the target market of these three AI video entrants, you might say that YouTube is focused on the 1% of creators; OpenAI is focused on the 9% of editors/distributors; Meta is focused on the 90% of users who consume.

...it's striking how this target market evaluation tracks with the companies themselves: YouTube has always prioritized creators, while OpenAI's business model is predicated on people actively using AI; it's Meta that has stayed focused on the silent majority that simply consumes...

…Meta can still build a good product. Vibes may not end up being for everyone — I hesitate to generalize too broadly from what I like, given my rather esoteric media consumption habits — but I think it is executed very well, with a strong and unique point of view. That sort of product sensibility is something that has generally been missing in AI.

..Meta has the courage and conviction to lean into what AI can uniquely do. There are a lot of things to wring one's hands about when it comes to Vibes, but Meta is leaving that hand-wringing to the peanut gallery, and actually shipping. There's something to be said for that.