“Scaling laws are real, ofc. ++ model power keeps raising the ceiling. But capability ≠ adoption. The moat in workflow AI is bottling institutional context and making it useful in the moment of work.”
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“Pretrained models are powerful, but not turnkey. Extracting Quinn’s win rate, UCSF’s pathways, or Zappos’s ethos is closer to RL than pretraining. You shape behavior with constraints and feedback until it fits the environment. Workflow products do that shaping.”
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“The Bitter Lesson is obvi right: scaling keeps raising the baseline. But raw capability isn’t adoption, because no user wants to give superintelligence full context all the time. App winners are the ones who bottle context into systems trusted at the point of action.”